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Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japan's territory as Beijing escalates strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.